the EMERGENCE OF THE ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN INDUSTRY IN BRAZIL:

REGULATORY OR TECHNOLOGICAL LAG?

Abstract

This article analyzes the emergence of the alternative protein industry in Brazil and examines the extent to which national regulation fosters a favorable environment for sectoral consolidation. It combines a literature review with interviews conducted with researchers, entrepreneurs, public officials, and legislators. The conceptual framework integrates the approaches of regulatory lag, the pacing problem, and standardization as a regulatory instrument. The findings show that, in Brazil, semantic disputes emerging at later stages of the regulatory cycle for plant-based products, rather than providing clarity and predictability, reinforce institutional ambiguity and may hinder both innovation and investment in the sector. On the other hand, the regulation of novel foods and ingredients has progressed more rapidly than technological maturity. This suggests that the pacing problem should be understood as a continuum, ranging from regulatory lag to technological lag. The article also introduces the notion of blocked co-evolution as a lens to explain the dynamics of emerging sectors: while regulators await technical evidence, firms postpone the submission of product dossiers under normative uncertainty, and consumers remain without clear standards of identity and safety.